empty
02.04.2025 08:25 PM
EUR/USD Analysis on April 2, 2025

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart is on the verge of transforming into a more complex structure. Since September 25 of last year, a new downward wave structure began to form, taking the shape of a five-wave impulse. Three months ago, a corrective upward structure began forming, which should consist of at least three waves. The first wave of this correction was well-formed, so I still expect the second wave to follow a clear structure. However, this second wave has become so large that a significant transformation of the overall wave count is now a real risk.

From a fundamental standpoint, recent news continues to support sellers more than buyers. All recent U.S. economic reports have signaled that the economy is not facing serious problems and shows no signs of slowing to levels that would cause concern. However, the situation in the U.S. economy could change dramatically in 2025 due to Donald Trump's policy. The Fed may cut rates multiple times, while tariffs and retaliatory tariffs could weigh on economic growth. If not for recent developments, I would have continued expecting a euro decline with a 90% probability — but now, it's no longer that clear-cut.

EUR/USD remained virtually unchanged over Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Market movements are almost non-existent, and trader activity is close to zero. Why is this happening, despite what seems like a jam-packed economic calendar? As usual, the answer lies with Donald Trump. He is scheduled to speak during the U.S. session today, and the market is waiting to hear which new trade tariffs might be introduced. Until the new "tariff plan" is announced, market participants see little reason to enter trades.

There are a few speculations about what the new tariffs might look like. Some economists believe Trump may impose a 20–25% tariff on all imported goods from all countries. Others think the plan could be more complex, with different rates for different countries. Trump has frequently stated that he is most concerned about the U.S. trade balance with countries where the deficit is too large. Therefore, it's plausible that over the past few weeks, the president and his sizable team have been working on a customized tariff plan rather than a one-size-fits-all 20% hike.

Personally, I don't see the point in speculating. Even major global analysts and banks are refraining from betting on any particular scenario. Trump is too unpredictable, and his actions often defy logic. That's why I suggest simply waiting for this crucial announcement and only then drawing conclusions.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the current EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument is still forming a downward segment of the trend — although in the near future, it could shift to an upward trend. A renewed rise in the euro would transform the entire wave pattern. Since the fundamental backdrop currently contradicts the wave count, I cannot recommend short positions — even though the current price levels look extremely attractive for selling with targets below the 1.0200 area, provided the wave picture remains intact.

At the higher wave scale, the structure has evolved into an impulse wave. It is likely that we are entering a new long-term downward series of waves, though the news flow — especially from Donald Trump — has the potential to turn everything upside down.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often signal changes.
  2. If there is no clarity in the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction never exists. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD Analysis on April 17, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has shifted into a bullish impulse formation. I believe there's no doubt this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade

Chin Zhao 19:12 2025-04-17 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on April 17, 2025

The GBP/USD pair remained unchanged on Thursday. While such market behavior might have been expected for Thursday, it was surprising not to see a decline on Wednesday, given the number

Chin Zhao 19:09 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 16, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has shifted into a bullish formation. I think there's little doubt that this transformation was caused solely

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 16, 2025

The wave structure of the GBP/USD pair has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 18:53 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 15, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has shifted into a bullish formation. I believe there's little doubt that this transformation is entirely due to the new U.S

Chin Zhao 19:03 2025-04-15 UTC+2

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 15, 2025

The wave structure for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive formation — "thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave pattern is almost identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February

Chin Zhao 18:56 2025-04-15 UTC+2

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 14, 2025

The wave structure of the GBP/USD pair has also transitioned into a bullish, impulsive formation— thanks to Donald Trump. The wave pattern looks almost identical to that of EUR/USD

Chin Zhao 19:09 2025-04-14 UTC+2

Analysis for EUR/USD on April 14, 2025

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has transitioned into a bullish formation. I believe there is little doubt that this shift occurred solely

Chin Zhao 19:05 2025-04-14 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, and US Dollar Index – April 14th

GBP/USD Analysis: On the higher time frame of the pound sterling's major pair, a bullish trend has been forming since July last year. Over the past month, an extended corrective

Isabel Clark 12:20 2025-04-14 UTC+2

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and Gold – April 14th

EUR/USD Analysis: On the 4-hour chart of the euro major pair, an upward trend has been developing since early February. The structure of the wave has been forming its final

Isabel Clark 12:16 2025-04-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.