empty
04.09.2022 03:43 PM
Bitcoin could drop to $15,000 and here's why

Bitcoin continues to consolidate locally under the resistance level of 20,700. At the same time, it remains above $20,000 per coin, which is an important aspect in its further dynamics.

Nevertheless, the fundamental background and upcoming events are unlikely to favor keeping the main cryptocurrency above this border.

This image is no longer relevant

A rate hike by the US Federal Reserve on September 21 will determine the market's direction in the coming months. According to Wall Street analysts, the Fed could go for another 75 basis point hike in September to curb inflation, which would likely push the price of bitcoin below the $20,000 level.

Bitcoin Pricing Models

Analysts are now scratching their heads over whether bitcoin has reached the bottom of a bearish cycle. The lower bound of this downward movement can be predicted using various network price models such as the realized price, delta price, and Thermo price. However, the actual price movement still depends on technical and macroeconomic factors.

The realized price is a widely used on-chain price model for estimating the bottom of a major cryptocurrency bear cycle. This is the average price at which each bitcoin in circulation last moved. Historically, BTC has always fallen below the strike price. When this happens, other price patterns are used. The current selling price is $21,592.

Historically, the price of bitcoin has bottomed out at the delta price in the 2015 and 2018 bear markets. The delta price is currently $14,478. This indicates that BTC quotes may fall another 28% from the current level.

Thermo price signaled a market bottom in 2011. This is the historical price at which each bitcoin was first mined. According to Thermo price, the bottom for BTC is $2,365. However, quotes are unlikely to fall to these levels in the current cycle as the number of addresses holding BTC has increased tremendously.

Bitcoin: Price Risks Falling to Lower Levels

Now the cryptocurrency market retains a close correlation with traditional assets, in particular stocks, which means it is sensitive to the monetary policy of the US central bank.

The US Fed's rate hike will mainly depend on August jobs data and CPI data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 67% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike. In addition, Wall Street banks are expecting a 75 basis point gain in September.

According to US employment data for August, the employment rate fell to 315,000 from 528,000 in July. Moreover, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in August from 3.5% in July. This gives a small share of optimism to the cryptocurrency market.

However, the data on the consumer price index of September 13 will basically dispel all doubts about the step by which the rate will be raised at the next meeting. But the decline in oil and food prices may slow down the rate hike by the Fed.

$20,000 Level Key Role

September has historically been a bad month for US stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Analysts at hedge fund AlphaTrAI believe that the latest US jobs report will eventually push the top cryptocurrency below the current $20,000 zone to $15,000.

AlphaTrAI CIO Max Gohman emphasized this after the latest employment report was stronger than expected. Higher unemployment figures mean that the Fed is likely to raise interest rates higher than they have been since previous periods of monetary tightening.

Gohman, like many other analysts, based on the close correlation of the crypto market with macroeconomic sentiment, stressed that the $20,000 level is now critical. Its loss will mean a deeper fall for bitcoin.

Hedge fund AlphaTrAI converted most of its cryptocurrency holdings into cash at the end of August, ending the month with a drop of just 0.4%.

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto pada 11 April

Bitcoin dan Ethereum mengalami penurunan nilai menjelang penutupan sesi Amerika Syarikat pada hari Khamis tetapi pulih semula semasa waktu dagangan Asia hari ini. Adalah menjadi kebiasaan bahawa pasaran kripto menurun

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:28 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Cryptocurrency Polkadot, Jumaat 11 April 2025

Apabila berlaku perbezaan antara pergerakan harga mata wang kripto Polkadot dan penunjuk Stochastic Oscillator pada carta 4 jamnya, selagi tiada pembetulan kelemahan yang menembusi dan ditutup di bawah tahap 3.2460

Arief Makmur 08:52 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Intraday Matawang Kripto Uniswap, Jumaat 11 April 2025.

Berdasarkan apa yang diperhatikan pada carta 4 jam bagi mata wang kripto Uniswap, terdapat perbezaan (divergence) antara pergerakan harga Uniswap dan penunjuk Pengayun Stochastic. Maka, berdasarkan isyarat ini, dalam masa

Arief Makmur 08:52 2025-04-11 UTC+2

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Kriptowang pada 10 April

Bitcoin dan Ethereum kedua-duanya melonjak, meningkat antara 6% hingga 10% selepas berita bahawa Trump tiba-tiba mengubah pendiriannya. Gelombang FOMO yang kuat jelas terlihat dalam BTC selepas berita tentang jeda

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:05 2025-04-10 UTC+2

Bitcoin di bawah tekanan jualan. Mengapa kenaikan mendadak pun sukar menyelamatkan pasaran Menaik

Bitcoin sedang mengalami kejatuhan mendadak, dana melaporkan kerugian, dan penganalisis tidak melihat sebarang sebab untuk pertumbuhan. Apakah yang sedang berlaku dengan peneraju pasaran kripto? Apa yang perlu dilakukan dalam situasi

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:07 2025-04-09 UTC+2

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Matawang Kripto pada 9 April

Bitcoin dan Ethereum mengalami kejatuhan pada penghujung hari Selasa, meneruskan penjualan besar-besaran semasa sesi dagangan Asia hari ini. Penurunan mendadak lain dalam pasaran saham Amerika Syarikat turut menyeret aset berisiko

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:22 2025-04-09 UTC+2

Satu Lagi Kejatuhan Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto.

Satu lagi kejatuhan di pasaran saham turut memberi kesan kepada pasaran mata wang kripto. Pelabur, yang takut akan penurunan lebih lanjut, mula secara besar-besaran melepaskan aset digital, yang mencetuskan penurunan

Jakub Novak 09:22 2025-04-09 UTC+2

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto pada 8 April

Bitcoin dan Ethereum secara beransur-ansur pulih selepas penjualan mendadak awal minggu ini. Situasi di pasaran saham AS dan penurunannya yang mendadak mempunyai kaitan rapat dengan kejatuhan pasaran mata wang kripto

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:25 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Bitcoin – Tinjauan Analisis Teknikal

Pada masa ini, pasaran sedang menguji tahap sokongan bulanan pada 79,773 – 75,446. Pengukuhan di bawah kawasan ini akan memberi kawalan kepada penjual ke atas tahap tersebut dan membatalkan Ichimoku

Evangelos Poulakis 07:36 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Cadangan Dagangan untuk Pasaran Mata Wang Kripto pada 4 April

Bitcoin dan Ethereum sekali lagi berjaya menahan tekanan yang ketara, yang dikenakan ke atas kedua-duanya semalam pada penghujung hari susulan kejatuhan besar dalam pasaran saham AS — sebuah pasaran yang

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:09 2025-04-04 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.