Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.0315 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upwards from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point to buy the euro within the upward trend. As a result, the pair rose by 35 points, although it didn't quite reach the target level.

Looking ahead, we expect a significant analysis of the U.S. labor market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which serves as a crucial indicator for forecasting currency movements. Job openings and labor turnover directly affect consumer confidence and, consequently, investment decisions both domestically and internationally. If employment data is encouraging, it will create a positive backdrop for strengthening the dollar. Conversely, factory orders reflect the current state of the U.S. economy. An increase in orders may signal growing business confidence, positively influencing economic optimism indices like RCM/TIPP. Strong figures in these areas could push the dollar higher against the euro.

Intraday Strategy

I will focus on Scenarios #1 and #2 for today's intraday trading.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.0351 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0410. At 1.0410, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point movement from the entry point. You should only expect euro growth today if U.S. data turns out to be weak.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.0313 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. You can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0351 and 1.0410.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0313 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0266, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point retracement. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment, especially after strong U.S. data.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.0351 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0313 and 1.0266.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Approximate price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Approximate price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notice for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Be very cautious when making market entry decisions.
• Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings.
• If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

For successful trading, it's essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.