empty
02.01.2025 01:27 PM
What Awaits Precious Metals in 2025?

This image is no longer relevant

In 2025, many developed countries will continue lowering interest rates, but the pace of these reductions will depend on regional and economic conditions. In the United States, the Federal Reserve plans to act more cautiously than other central banks. The Fed forecasts only two rate cuts this year, fewer than previously expected. This cautious approach stems from the relatively stable U.S. economy and persistent inflation.

Most major banks have lowered their interest rate expectations. Fixed-income analysts at Bank of America agree with the Fed's forecast of two rate cuts. Banking holding company Wells Fargo is slightly more conservative, predicting only one rate cut this year. However, Canadian multinational investment bank TD Securities predicts four rate cuts, estimating that the federal funds rate will drop to 3.50% by year-end. Meanwhile, U.S.-based investment company BlackRock believes Treasury yields will rise by year-end, as the Fed is unlikely to aggressively cut rates.

Not all analysts, however, are confident that the U.S. economy can withstand geopolitical uncertainties and the unintended consequences of policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.

This image is no longer relevant

Ahead of his inauguration, Trump threatened to impose trade tariffs on nearly all major global economies. These tariffs would promote domestic production and support the U.S. dollar, but the policy comes with costs and could exacerbate existing inflationary pressures. In short, Trump's presidency implies higher U.S. inflation and weaker global growth. However, if Trump's tariff threats remain just that—threats—the world's economic growth rate, considering high U.S. inflation and migration policies, might slightly underperform its 3% trend.

Banking experts predict that if Trump's tariff plan materializes, its effects will only begin to be felt in Q3 2025. Regarding the Fed's monetary policy and its impact on precious metals, many analysts expect shifting rate expectations to create short-term obstacles and volatility for precious metals. Limited Fed rate cuts will support the U.S. dollar, posing another significant challenge for precious metals.

Nevertheless, analysts in commodities remain confident that gold will surpass $3,000 per ounce by year-end.

Additionally, the correlation between gold and Treasury yields, and even the U.S. dollar, has broken down as central banks continue purchasing large volumes of precious metals for reserves. Trump's tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to amplify the ongoing dedollarization trend among central banks in emerging markets.

In conclusion, the global economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, requiring flexibility from central banks. Geopolitical risks may pose challenges to global development. Despite short-term hurdles, the precious metals market will continue to attract investments, especially amid dedollarization and geopolitical instability.

Irina Yanina,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o iene japonês atingiu uma nova mínima diária, o que contribuiu para a valorização do par USD/JPY, que se aproximou do nível de 143,50. Esse movimento de alta

Irina Yanina 21:07 2025-05-07 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Análise e previsão

O par NZD/USD recua após atingir uma máxima de mais de duas semanas na região de 0,6025–0,6030. No momento, as cotações caíram abaixo do nível psicológico de 0,6000, sinalizando

Irina Yanina 21:00 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Déficit comercial dos EUA atinge recorde em março

O euro reagiu com um aumento após a notícia de que o déficit comercial dos EUA subiu para um nível recorde em março deste ano, já que as empresas correram

Jakub Novak 18:14 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Os mercados não aceitarão imposições

O mercado finalmente abriu os olhos. Donald Trump não é o tipo de presidente que reduziria tarifas em resposta a cortes recíprocos de outros países. O ocupante da Casa Branca

Marek Petkovich 18:03 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Vale a pena esperar por uma forte recuperação do mercado? (Há uma alta probabilidade de crescimento contínuo na #SPX e na #NDX)

Os mercados acionários apresentaram melhora, a demanda por criptomoedas aumentou, mas os preços do ouro caíram bruscamente após um rali pontual.Enquanto isso, o dólar norte-americano permaneceu praticamente estável frente

Pati Gani 17:52 2025-05-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Será que a queda ainda é inevitável?

O Banco do Japão manteve sua política monetária inalterada na reunião realizada em 1º de maio. No relatório "Perspectivas para a Atividade Econômica e os Preços", a instituição revisou para

Kuvat Raharjo 17:37 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Ouro volta a crescer

O ouro retomou sua trajetória de alta enquanto investidores avaliavam declarações do secretário do Tesouro dos EUA, Scott Bessent, sobre negociações comerciais, à espera da decisão do Federal Reserve sobre

Jakub Novak 17:21 2025-05-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview - 6 de maio: Trump mira a indústria cinematográfica

O par GBP/USD foi negociado em alta na primeira metade da segunda-feira, mas perdeu força na segunda metade do dia. Embora o dólar americano não tenha registrado grandes perdas

Paolo Greco 23:11 2025-05-06 UTC+2

O euro encerra sua consolidação e se prepara para subir novamente

A inflação na zona do euro permaneceu em 2,2% no comparativo anual em abril, um pouco acima da queda esperada para 2,1%. Enquanto isso a inflação básica aumentou de 2,4%

Kuvat Raharjo 21:55 2025-05-06 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O iene japonês está atraindo compradores após sua recente queda, devido ao sua condição de ativo de refúgio em tempos de incerteza. A esperada recuperação do iene é sustentada

Irina Yanina 21:50 2025-05-06 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.