Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound
The test of the 1.2935 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. Shortly afterward, a second test of this level occurred while the MACD was in the oversold zone, which allowed Scenario #2 for buying to be realized. However, as you can see on the chart, after a 10-pip rise, selling pressure on the pair returned.
Yesterday's mixed UK and US PMI data maintained high volatility in the market and preserved the chances for the pound to continue rising against the US dollar. Today, the only notable data release is the retail sales report from the Confederation of British Industry, and positive numbers could trigger renewed buying, supporting the ongoing uptrend in the pair. Every report is scrutinized in the current environment of heightened uncertainty driven by geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. Even slight deviations from expectations can lead to volatility in the currency market. Despite the pound's recent resilience, any negative shock could quickly change the outlook.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point near 1.2940 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2975 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 1.2975 level, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip move. A bullish outlook for the pound is only justified following strong economic data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2911 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may lead to a market reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.2940 and 1.2979 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.2911 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid drop in the pair. The primary target for sellers will be 1.2874, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 pip retracement. It's best to sell the pound at higher levels. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2940 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and could lead to a reversal to the downside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.2911 and 1.2874 can be expected.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
- The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
- The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
- The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
- The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes:
- Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
- Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
